Old Man Winter?
Mike Williams - November 19, 2008
There is a big party crasher that always gets in and has an effect on the dash to the finals in all
fantasy leagues for the last 4 weeks, and that is the weather himself. We already started to see
it last week, with the Chargers-Steelers game. Outside of Hines Ward, it was a bad game for the
passing games of two teams who usually put up nice point totals thru the air.
Another example on the other end of the spectrum of this, was the Pats-Jets game. Everyone
was calling for a monsoon a few hours before the game and once the game started, but it
ended up not raining and Matt Cassell put up 37 fantasy points! Some teams decided to bench
those players because of the potential rain and it really cost them.
So the question is, how do you handle the weather? Well like all factors, it's important but don't
outsmart yourself. Heavy snow with accumulation is a factor, but light snow isn't so bad.
Monsoon rains on bad fields, like a Heinz Field, can screw up everyone, but light rains on a field
turf surface aren't so bad. The most important thing to realize is that in games with really bad
conditions, most coaches are going to shorten the game by trying to run the ball and play for
field position. This severely limits potential big games for WR's and QB's, while increasing value
for RB's. You are asking for trouble by benching your topline starters, but if your WR3 is
normally someone like a Matt Jones who might be playing in awful weather and you have the
option of starting a Justin Gage who is in a dome that week, you might want to opt for the
latter.
Also, down the stretch, we are going to have Thursday and Saturday games, so it's important to
try and judge the weather a few days out. If you have a guy going on Thursday that is similar to
a guy going on Sunday who may have horrendous weather, you may have to play the guy on
Thursday rather than risk a bad score from a key player. Check around and do your homework
on weather conditions. In our Bi Weekly NFL Matchups, Russ Steele takes a look at the weather
for each game. You can also go to www.weather.com , where they list all of the NFL game
forecasts each week.
So weather is a factor, and it's hard to plan five weeks from now as free agent pools lock after
this week, but you are going to run into some weather situations that will have an impact on
your team. Be as diverse as possible with your backups so you have flexibility on your roster,
it's definitely a good idea to carry 2 Kickers if you have someone who plays in a cold city. Check
out the schedules and see what warm city players are out there. That might be the deciding
factor on carrying them vs. a cold weather city player.
